CV Risk Prognostic Model

CVリスク予後モデルによるHFにCV死亡率や入院を評価します

The SHIFT Prognostic model calculator is a calculator allowing you to easily obtain the risk for heart failure (HF) patients. The risk calculator has been developed from the SHIFT sub- analysis, and provides important prognostic information in ambulatory patients with chronic HF receiving contemporary guideline-recommended therapy. The 10 best predictors for risk stratification in patients with chronic HF and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), including easily obtainable clinical characteristics and heart rate (HR), have been included for this calculator.

Increased resting HR, low ejection fraction, raised creatinine, New York Heart Association class III/IV, longer duration of HF, history of left bundle branch block, , low systolic blood pressure and, for three models, age were strong predictors of all outcomes. Additional predictors were low body mass index, male gender, ischaemic HF, low total cholesterol, no history of hyperlipidaemia or dyslipidaemia and presence of atrial fibrillation/flutter. Note that the risk factors are independent.

The SHIFT Prognostic model includes simple, readily obtainable clinical characteristics to produce important prognostic information in patients with chronic HF, systolic dysfunction, and elevated HR. This may help better calibrate management to individual patient risk. This calculator assess the risk for two endpoints of the SHIFT trial: risk of cardiovascular death or hospital admission for worsening HF over the next 2 years, and risk of hospital admission for worsening heart failure over the next 2 years.